Amlo and the realities of Mexico’s oil reform

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Petroleum Economist / Craig Guthrie / July 9

 

The Mexican president-elect needs a strong oil and gas sector to fund a promised social transformation

The investor-friendly tone Mexican president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, widely known as Amlo, struck in the run-up to his landslide victory on 1 July is fueling confidence he will tweak rather than dismantle the energy reforms that are enticing international oil companies to the country.

Prospects of an Amlo presidency had stirred concerns among investors for months ahead of the vote—he’s the first leftist Mexican president since the 1930s, and has forged an anti-elitist platform calling for a reordering of the political landscape. And yet the peso gained more than 2% against the US dollar in the hours after the result.

«This can be a presidency ruled by reason and legality,» Ixchel Castro, manager of Latin American oils and refining markets research with Wood Mackenzie, tells Petroleum Economist, while pointing to the currency market’s reaction and the links he’s built with Mexican business elites. «There may be change in the emphasis of the energy reforms, but we see a reversal as highly unlikely».

Launched by outgoing President Enrique Peña Nieto in 2013, the reforms ended Pemex’s 75-year monopoly over the energy sector. So far, auctions in January and March jointly lured at least $100bn in oil exploration investment commitments from more than 70 different firms—useful revenue for a president who has promised sweeping social changes to tackle crime, corruption and poverty.

Amlo made opposition to the reforms a bedrock of his failed 2013 presidential bid, and told a rally just four months ago that he would never allow Mexican crude to return to the hands of foreigners. But a reversal in tack since has seen his top business adviser and nominee for chief of staff, Alfonso Romo, lead a pro-business public relations drive towards international investors.

Romo told Reuters on 25 June that there could be more auctions of oil drilling rights, as long as a review of contracts that have already been awarded to private companies showed no problems. «We will revise them and everything good will remain,» he said, noting that Amlo had said this directly to investors in New York.

But it’s not expected to be all smooth sailing for foreign oil investment under Amlo’s watch. Uncertainty over the long-term goals of his populist agenda will likely continue to unnerve companies looking to establish a steady pipeline of projects.

«Amlo will likely enjoy the benefits from the existing contracts that have been awarded, especially in terms of oil barrels produced, fiscal revenue received and jobs created. By the third year of his administration he can claim that Mexico is producing more oil under his presidency,» Duncan Wood, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre wrote in an e-mail.

«But he will be reluctant to continue the bidding rounds. The one possible exception that I see would be in deep waters and in farm-outs from Pemex.»

Mexico plans to auction 37 onshore areas and nine in the shale gas-rich Burgos Basin on 27 September, as well as the farm-out of seven onshore areas with Pemex on 31 October.

Amlo’s approach to a planned re-shaping of Pemex is seen as the next critical indicator of his eventual intentions on the country’s energy direction.

While the president has pledged to resurrect Pemex into a strong national oil company through cost-cutting, this comes amid a significant decline in domestic energy production—from 3.4m barrels of oil a day in 2004 to 1.9m b/d in 2018.

«Pemex must be forced to compete in order to become stronger,» said Wood. «If the reform process is stopped, Pemex would gain from a strengthening of its position in the short-term. But in the long term its competitiveness and productivity could be severely damaged.»

 

Petroleum Economist / Craig Guthrie / July 9

 

 

Trump and Mexico’s New Leader, Both Headstrong, Begin With a ‘Good Conversation’

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The New York Times / Michael D. Shear and Ana Swanson / July 2

 

WASHINGTON — President Trump reached out to Mexico’s new populist president-elect on Monday in an early, but potentially short-lived, show of détente, saying the two leaders engaged in a “good conversation” about border security and the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The two countries remain locked in a heated dispute over the fraught issues of immigration and trade, areas that may face difficult complications from the election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a leader known for being as strong-headed and nationalist-minded as Mr. Trump — and just as willing to engage in a public clash of ideas.

Mr. López Obrador, who has said Mexico will not be a “piñata” for foreign governments, has said he will stand up to Mr. Trump to protect his country’s interests. And he may find himself under pressure by an electorate that, weary of Mr. Trump’s hectoring and disparaging comments about Mexico, will demand that he cede no ground, leaving little room to manage the relationship.

“There are going to be so many opportunities for this to go wrong,” said Duncan Wood, the director of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. “If there are too many provocations, if there are too many insults against Mexico, López Obrador will not be able to just sit back and take it. His character shows that he will respond, and that could lead us down a dark path.”

Relations between Mexico and the United States are already tense, particularly over trade and the future of Nafta, which has enabled companies to create critical supply chains across North America. Talks to revise the trade pact among Mexico, the United States and Canada have stalled over dramatic changes proposed by the Trump administration, including altering protections for investors and rules for manufacturing automobiles in North America.

Mr. López Obrador has been a longtime critic of the 1994 trade pact and has given no indiction he will be more willing to accommodate Mr. Trump’s demands than the current Mexican government. Among other things, Mr. López Obrador has blamed Nafta for triggering an influx of grain from the United States that ultimately forced Mexican farmers off their land.

But Mr. López Obrador has pledged to continue to renegotiate Nafta — a promise that could ultimately put him in the position of defending the trade agreement against the frequent criticisms of Mr. Trump, who has called it the “worst” trade deal in history and blamed Mexico for siphoning off American jobs. Mr. López Obrador’s advisers have said they will start working with the current Nafta negotiators soon to ensure a smooth transition when the new administration takes office on Dec. 1.

The president-elect has also taken a far more critical view than his predecessor of corporations — which have among the most to win or lose with a revised Nafta. He has long criticized the role of multinational corporations in Mexico and once promised to turn the presidential palace into a public park. He has promised to review dozens of outstanding oil and gas exploration contracts for corruption, potentially delaying hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign investment. His election has put the value of the peso and Mexican government bonds on a more volatile path.

During the campaign, Mr. López Obrador and his advisers worked to reassure voters and industry that he would provide continuity for the private sector.

Known as an anti-establishment candidate, Mr. López Obrador is a divisive figure with Mr. Trump’s flare for capturing attention. After a failed bid for the presidency in 2006 against Felipe Calderón, Mr. López Obrador held a faux inauguration ceremony for himself, appointed a shadow cabinet and protested in the middle of the capital for weeks.

Mr. Trump and Mr. López Obrador spoke for 30 minutes Monday morning after the latter ’s landslide victory Sunday night. The call came just hours after Mr. Trump congratulated Mr. López Obrador in a rare, friendly tweet that said: “I look very much forward to working with him.”

The incoming Mexican president in turn pledged never to “disrespect” the United States government. In a tweet of his own, Mr. López Obrador said there was “respectful treatment” on the call.

Any period of gracious talk may be short lived, however, with Mr. Trump almost certain to continue his tirade about the 2,000-mile border with Mexico, and Mr. López Obrador virtually guaranteed to fire back in ways that his predecessors did not.

Mr. López Obrador “has committed to a louder, more combative posture with the U.S.,” said Carlos M. Gutiérrez, the former secretary of commerce under President George W. Bush. “He’s getting ready to take it up a notch.”

Mr. Trump campaigned for the presidency by demanding a wall across the southern border and suggesting that people being “sent” from Mexico into the United States are “bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists.”

More recently, Mr. Trump has escalated his language against Mexico, accusing Democrats in a tweet of wanting “illegal immigrants, no matter how bad they may be, to pour into and infest our Country, like MS-13.”

 

The New York Times / Michael D. Shear and Ana Swanson / July 2

 

Mexico’s incoming leftist President could open US-Mexico energy relations

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The Daily Caller /Jason Hopkins / July 2

 

The election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador as Mexico’s next president has investors around the world on edge, waiting to see how the leftist leader will approach the oil and gas industry.

López Obrador handily won Mexico’s presidential election Sunday, capturing over 53 percent of the vote — more than double the percentage of the second-place finisher. His victory brings a new era of progressive populism to the U.S.’ southern neighbor. A member of the National Regeneration Movement Party, López Obrador touts a far-left pedigree: universal access to public colleges, an expansion of welfare programs, increased investment in industries and other big government proposals.

The president-elect’s calls for energy reform, however, has been the most striking to international observers. López Obrador pledged during the campaign to hold a referendum on reforms the country made several years ago that embraced measured degrees of privatization of the country’s oil sector.

Outgoing President Peña Nieto opened the country’s petroleum industry in 2013 to foreign investment, ending a decades-old monopoly held by Pemex, the country’s state-run petroleum company. The move was intended to revive Mexico’s oil and gas production, which is plagued with rampant inefficiency, debt and outdated equipment.

During the 2018 campaign, López Obrador derided these pro-market reforms. While promising to honor existing oil contracts, he believes the country should prioritize nationalization of the industry once again.

“As a long-time ally of national labor unions and a supporter of a strong [Pemex], [López Obrador] may seek to maximize national investment and employment in the sector, hedging Mexico’s political risk, even at the cost of economic efficiency,” David Goldwyn, chairman of the Atlantic’s Global Energy Center Advisory Group, noted Sunday.

Such reforms could have major implications for Mexico-U.S. energy relations, which hold very deep ties.

The U.S. currently exports a large amount of gas across the border and the Mexican government, in turn, sends heavy crude to American consumers. As crude oil imports to the U.S. has declined over the years, the trade imbalance between the two countries has shifted. U.S. energy exports to Mexico now exceeds its imports, according to the Energy Information Administration. These issues may come up as the Trump administration is set to renegotiate key agreements within the North American Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada.

López Obrador, for his part, is no fan of Trump. The longtime Mexican politician wrote a book entitled “Oye, Trump” (“Listen, Trump”) that blasts the American leader for his calls to build a border wall and his “attempts to persecute migrant workers.” The book includes a number of speeches López Obrador has given. In one such speech, he compared Trump to Hiter, saying “Trump and his advisers speak of the Mexicans the way Hitler and the Nazis referred to the Jews, just before undertaking the infamous persecution and the abominable extermination.”

 

The Daily Caller /Jason Hopkins / July 2

 

Electronic cyberattacks in Mexico raise alarm bells ahead of Sunday’s election

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Bloomberg / Eric Martin with assistance by Michael Riley from Bloomberg / June 25

While Mexicans will cast their vote July 1 by paper ballot, electronic systems will be used to tally and transmit the results, which the electoral authorities will then release to trusted media outlets. The slightest disruption to the voting process can sow doubt and distrust, said Ron Bushar, vice president of government solutions for cybersecurity services company Mandiant. Tensions are already high in the country given that polls show Mexicans are likely to elect a leftist for the first time in almost five decades. That candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has accused his rivals of fraud and collusion to keep him from winning in the past two presidential elections, while his opponents say that his presidency would be a disaster for Mexico’s economy. Such polarization is fertile ground for cyber criminals. «The outcome of an election almost doesn’t matter» for hackers, Bushar said. It’s about “calling into question the legitimacy (of the process) or creating a lot of tension between the political parties.»

A warning came last December, when former U.S. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said that there was evidence of Russian interference in Mexico’s campaign, although he didn’t elaborate on how Russia was seeking to influence the process. Russia was mentioned again this month when candidate Ricardo Anaya’s team said a website it created to publish information questioning ties between Lopez Obrador and a contractor, was shut down by «an attack». The Anaya campaign said the hack originated in Russia. The campaigns of Lopez Obrador, Anaya and Jose Antonio Meade didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Achilles Heel

«Cybersecurity continues to be a potential Achilles heel of Mexico’s electoral process,» said Arturo Sarukhan, a former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. Part of the concern stems from other hacks in Mexico recently. The state-owned export promotion bank Bancomext suffered an attempted cyber theft of $110 million in January. In April and May, hackers succeeded in infiltrating five financial institutions including Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB and stole at least $15 million from lenders. «I think the election system is really vulnerable, more vulnerable than the banks,» said Israel Reyes, an international consultant in cyber security, who worked this year as a contractor for Mexico’s National Polytechnic Institute as part of a broader plan for election day commissioned by the country’s national electoral institute, known as INE. Reyes said he’s concerned that the institute is unprepared to respond to a cyber attack or systems failure. The project Reyes worked on alongside specialists from Harvard and the MIT was terminated in March by the Polytechnic Institute, which cited inadequate time to complete it.

‘Attack Map’

The most likely attack in Mexico is one that would involve multiple information requests, known as a Distributed Denial of Service attack, which would overwhelm and crash INE’s website. That’s the kind of attack that the Anaya campaign said it suffered during the presidential debate on June 12. INE is working to mitigate risks, said Jorge Torres, INE’s chief of information services, who has worked there for almost two decades. «We have personnel with lots of experience in these issues, and we also have third parties auditing.» On the wall of his office at the institute’s headquarters in Mexico City, Torres has eight screens that constantly monitor INE’s information systems, including a «Digital Attack Map» showing daily cyber attacks around the world. The only part of the electoral system connected to the Internet is INE’s main website, which itself won’t even have a vote count but will provide a list of media outlets that can provide the preliminary tally, Torres said. Other communications systems run on an internal network and are protected, he said. INE has been simulating attacks on its systems to try to detect any vulnerabilities ahead of the vote. The institute also hired Scitum, a company owned by billionaire Carlos Slim, who controls Mexico’s biggest phone company and a majority of its telecommunications infrastructure, to double-check its work. Scitum didn’t return e-mails and phone calls asking about its tests. «There can always be risks, but we look to minimize them as much as possible,» Torres said.

 

NAFTA negotiations: Mixed feelings for US companies on Mexican border

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America CGTN / Steve Mort / June 18

 

The U.S., Canada, and Mexico say talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will press ahead despite Washington’s steel and aluminum tariffs. But recent tensions between the U.S. and Canada are casting doubt on whether a deal is possible.

At Allen Russell’s warehouse in the border city of El Paso, materials are processed for shipment to factories in Mexico. His company depends on those shipments being tariff-free under NAFTA, so he rejects President Trump’s claim that the trade deal is the worst ever made.

“It is not the worst trade deal. It has done more for North America than could even have anticipated.”

Russell’s business provides U.S. corporations with manufacturing facilities employing around 8,000 people in Mexico, where labor costs are lower. He fears that without NAFTA, his cost of doing business will rise.

“The American consumer is going to pay the bill,” according to Russell. “The product is just going to be more expensive. It doesn’t mean anybody is going to move from Mexico to the US to produce the product.”

The US-Mexico border region is one of the largest in the world. Its population exceeds 2.5 million, with an economy to match. Mexico is Texas’ largest export market, with cross-border trade worth hundreds of billions annually.

More than 1/5 of that trade crosses the border in El Paso.

Thomas Fullerton, a professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, studies the region’s economy and the potential impact should NAFTA talks fail.

“It will throw a monkey wrench into how things operate rather seamlessly at this point,” he explained. “Existing operations will probably remain in place, but the level of investment and business formation will plummet.”

But not everyone is so sure. Nicole Grado’s company sells packaging. Up to 90 percent of her customers ship internationally. She’s looking for ways to diversify her business and says she’s confident other US companies could thrive without NAFTA.

“There would be changes, but I think it’s like everything: you adjust to those changes and you adapt,” the CEO said. “You figure out ways to continue moving forward.”

While the outcome of the NAFTA talks remains far from certain, business on the border continues. El Paso’s economy is projected to grow two percent in 2018.

But most here hope a long-term deal can be reached soon, to avoid the lingering uncertainty hanging over this region’s economy.

 

America CGTN / Steve Mort / June 18

 

Risk And Reform: Observing Effective Controls In Mexico’s Rapidly Transforming Energy Sector

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Forbes / Armando Ortega / 11 Junio

 

MEXICO CITY—For decades, the most relevant compliance legislation for international companies operating in Mexico was the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Now, as a result of major national economic and legal reforms enacted during President Peña Nieto’s administration from 2012-2018, Mexico’s compliance environment has undergone a transformation. As foreign investment pours into Mexico’s recently opened oil and gas sector, legal entities are now criminally liable for any offenses or irregularities committed in their name, making the case for a robust compliance strategy that includes due diligence investigations into possible business partners.

A changing landscape: Mexico’s Energy Reform

Mexico enacted a historic reform program in December of 2013 that opened its oil and gas sector to foreign investment following 75 years of government ownership. Mexico’s energy reform plan was part of a broader, cross-sector effort by President Enrique Peña Nieto to boost the Mexican economy. Since its implementation, there have been three bidding rounds—the latest of which closed in March 2018—that have raised a total of $161.3 billion for investments that will take place until 2025. Fourteen percent of total investment is for public-private partnership projects between domestic and international companies and the Mexican state-owned oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). With these investments, Pemex expects to significantly increase Mexico’s current production of 2 million barrels per day to a hypothetical 3.4 million barrels per day.

There is significant international interest in the process, with 34 companies securing bids. The US, with nine companies, and the UK, with four, lead the pack. Royal Dutch Shell, Qatar Petroleum, British Petroleum and Chevron are just a few of the major multinationals that have a stake in Mexico as a result of the energy reform.

Although significant opportunities are opening up in the sector, it is key that international investors understand the complexities involved with the energy reforms, as they are occurring amid a rapidly changing regulatory environment and era of overall reform resulting from the Peña Nieto years, and as part of a broader shift in sentiment among the Latin American public in the fight against corruption.

The National Anticorruption System and the new compliance environment

In what can be best understood as a citizens’ effort, a set of new legislative and constitutional reforms have been introduced in Mexico since May 2014, culminating in the establishment of the National Anticorruption System (SNA) in July 2016. The SNA is defined as a coordinating body between various institutions, including the Superior Audit of the Federation and the Federal Court of Administrative Justice, among others, to create mechanisms of collaboration and coordination to effectively prosecute corrupt practices.

The SNA is still in its early stages; a Specialized Prosecutor’s Office in Combating Corruption has yet to be properly established, and the Mexican Congress has yet to elect the Anticorruption Prosecutor. However, despite the lack of distinct progress, parts of the legal reforms introduced to create the SNA already have far-reaching implications.

 

Forbes / Armando Ortega / 11 Junio

 

 

 

Mexico’s central bank chief sees risk from protectionism to economy: paper

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Reuters / Reuters Staff / june 4

 

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Protectionist trade measures could hit Mexican economic growth and inflation, Mexico’s central bank governor said in comments published by newspaper Reforma on Monday, in the wake of U.S. import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and the European Union.

 

Mexico now faces new tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum after temporary exemptions expired, prompting Latin America’s second biggest economy to slap tariffs on U.S. products such as pork and cheeses.

 

“It’s an element of risk, the fact that protectionist measures are beginning to spread and that it generates a less favorable environment for international trade,” Mexico Central Bank Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon said.

“The fact of this risk – which is already materializing in some actions against international trade – is an element of worry due to its influence on the side of growth and on the side of inflation,” he added.

The flurry of tariff hikes come as talks drag on among Mexico, Canada and the United States to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

 

Reuters / Reuters Staff / june 4

 

 

Rangeland Energy Begins Operations at its South Texas Energy Products System (STEPS) Terminal Facility in Corpus Christi, Texas

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Oil and Gas 360 / june 5

 

SUGAR LAND, Texas

Rangeland Energy III, LLC (“Rangeland”) today announced that operations commenced at its STEPS terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas, on Monday, June 4. Rangeland also announced that in June the company will begin loading diesel onto railcars for a leading refined products customer. The diesel will be delivered to third-party inland terminals in Mexico via the Kansas City Southern Railway(NYSE: KSU).

“Rangeland is looking forward to facilitating the transportation of diesel to destinations in Mexico for a major industry player,” said Rangeland President and CEO Christopher W. Keene. “This is the first customer to contract with us for services at the STEPS facility. As we continue to build out the STEPS project, we are working with other key marketers, refiners and producers to provide services into and out of STEPS.”

About STEPS

STEPS is an integrated hydrocarbon logistics system that receives and stores refined products, liquefied petroleum gas (“LPG”) and other hydrocarbons at a new terminal hub located in Corpus Christi, Texas, and transports them to terminals primarily located in Mexico. During the initial phase of the project, refined products and LPGs will be received in the Corpus Christi terminal then shipped to third-party inland terminals located in Mexico. In subsequent phases, marine facilities in Corpus Christi and Mexico will be added to the system, along with the infrastructure to accommodate additional commodities including crude oil, condensate and fuel oil. The STEPS project expands upon and leverages Rangeland’s successful track record of developing similar infrastructure in the Bakken Shale and Permian Basin.

The terminal site in Corpus Christi is strategically situated along the Kansas City Southern Railroad mainline within five miles of the Port of Corpus Christi and the Valero, CITGO and Flint Hills refineries. Inbound products initially will be delivered by truck or rail, followed later by pipeline and barge. Refined products and LPGs will move out of the STEPS Corpus Terminal primarily by rail, but the terminal could eventually connect to pipelines and vessels.

About Rangeland Energy

Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, Rangeland Energy was formed in 2009 to focus on developing, acquiring, owning and operating midstream infrastructure for crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and other petroleum products. The company is focused on emerging hydrocarbon production areas across North America, with a current emphasis on the Gulf Coast and Canada. The Rangeland team represents more than 200 years of combined midstream experience and is backed by an equity commitment from EnCap Flatrock Midstream. Visit www.rangelandenergy.com for more information.

 

Oil and Gas 360 / june 5

 

Canada’s Freeland to visit Washington this week for NAFTA talks

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Reuters / Reuters Staff / May 28

 

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland will go to Washington on Tuesday to meet with the U.S. trade chief, officials said on Monday, as officials press for a deal on reworking the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Freeland will be in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday, said her spokesman Adam Austen. The United States, Mexico and Canada have spent months struggling to settle deep differences over what a new NAFTA should look like.

“We’ve said all along we are ready to go (to Washington) at any time,” Austen said by phone, but declined to comment when asked about the chances of the three nations sealing a deal.

A spokesman for U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Freeland would meet the U.S. trade chief on Tuesday, but did not give details of the meeting. A Canadian official said that NAFTA would be on the agenda during the talks.

Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said last week there was about a 40-percent chance of concluding the NAFTA talks before Mexico’s July 1 presidential election.

Guajardo will not be at the Tuesday meeting in Washington.

The Mexican minister’s office said that he and his deputy Juan Carlos Baker would be in Paris through Thursday for high level meetings of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the World Trade Organization.

Earlier, the European Commission said Lighthizer and U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross are scheduled to be in Paris on Wednesday for meetings with Europe’s top trade official on the sidelines of the OECD event.

Meanwhile, the Mexican economy ministry said Guajardo and Baker would be holding bilateral talks with ministers from Mexico’s top trade partners while in Paris. The United States is easily Mexico’s most important trading partner.

Guajardo and Freeland have held several rounds of talks with Lighthizer, who says he wants a quick deal to avoid the talks overlapping with election campaigning in Mexico.

The negotiations are moving slowly as Mexico and Canada try to grapple with U.S. demands to impose tougher minimum content requirements for autos built in the region, along with several other contentious proposals.

 

Reuters / Reuters Staff / May 28

 

NAFTA Sticking Points: 9 Issues Standing In The Way Of A Deal

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Huffington Post / Alexander Panetta / May 22

 

From cars to milk to pharmaceuticals, there’s plenty left to resolve.

WASHINGTON — The NAFTA negotiations could continue for a while, with U.S. trade czar Robert Lighthizer signalling he wants significant changes in multiple areas and isn’t interested in a quick, limited deal.

Here are some key flashpoints involving Canada:

—Autos: This is the sticking point countries have spent the most effort trying to solve. The U.S. wants to stem the loss of manufacturing jobs to Mexico. Canada broadly shares that goal. However, the issue has prompted some concern, and not only from Mexico. While the U.S. has significantly softened its earlier demands, it still wants 40 per cent of every car built in a high-wage jurisdiction; 75 per cent of all parts to be North American; and 70 per cent of steel to be North American.

Critics of the plan say it could backfire: if auto-makers decide they don’t want to deal with all this red tape, they can just ignore NAFTA and simply pay the 2.5 per cent U.S. tariff on cars. Critics say that won’t create jobs — just more expensive cars, and less economic activity.

—Pharmaceuticals: It’s the stated goal of U.S. trade policy to make other countries pay more for drugs, so that foreigners shoulder more of the burden of research and development costs. The U.S. has a particular gripe with Canada: it’s reduced Canada’s ranking in an annual report card on intellectual property, partly over policy changes at Canada’s Patented Medicine Prices Review Board.

The U.S. wants more transparency in how drug prices are set in Canada. Its industry is also pushing for greater ability to appeal pricing decisions. Such objectives place it in direct conflict with the Trudeau government, which wants to create a national pharmacare plan and intends to argue that its policy is consistent with that of President Donald Trump, who campaigned on controlling drug prices.

—Dairy: The U.S. has two problems with Canadian dairy policy. First, Canada limits imports and sets fixed prices under a supply-management system, and does the same for poultry and eggs. Second, Canadian producers who are protected from competition are at the same time selling surplus ingredients onto the world market for cheese-making, contributing to a global glut.

The U.S. has demanded an end to these surplus sales, and also an end to supply management within 10 years. Canada’s counterpoint is that the U.S. engages in its own protections, supporting farmers during boom-bust cycles; it argues that Canada’s system at least has the benefit of being stable, and not requiring periodic bailouts. If past history is any guide, a middle-ground compromise might be possible: in agreements with Europe and the TPP countries, Canada opened up its dairy market by several percentage points.

—Dispute settlement: NAFTA is enforced by three main systems for settling disputes: Chapter 11 lets companies sue governments for unfair treatment, Chapter 19 lets industries fight punitive duties, and Chapter 20 lets countries sue countries.

The U.S. wants to weaken two of the three, and entirely end Chapter 19. It’s a historically emotional issue for Canada, as Chapter 19 was the original make-or-break condition for free trade with the U.S.; it’s also been used to fight softwood lumber duties. However, some observers question the relevance of Chapter 19 today, as other forums exist for fighting duties.

Take the spat against Bombardier, in which duties were overturned in the U.S. court system. As for Chapter 11, Canada has less of a historical attachment, although it’s extremely popular with those business allies in the U.S. fighting to preserve NAFTA.

The Trump administration’s trade czar dislikes all these systems — Lighthizer sees them not only as a violation of national sovereignty: he argues that Chapter 11 helps companies do the dirty deed of outsourcing jobs. He argues that if companies want to shift plants elsewhere, the U.S. government should not be in the business of protecting their legal rights in, for instance, Mexico.

—De minimis: Americans are allowed to spend $800 online before they pay duties on a foreign purchase; Canadians can spend $20. It’s one of the lowest rates in the world. Lighthizer says it might not be necessary to match the U.S. amount, but he says that 40-fold difference is unreasonable. Retailers argue that shifting the de minimis level would fuel a commercial real-estate crisis, and disproportionately benefit American tech companies which enjoy economies of scale.

—Intellectual property: The U.S. complains about Canada’s border controls on counterfeit goods. It says it’s concerned that Canada doesn’t provide customs officials with the ability to inspect, seize, and destroy pirated goods moving through Canada to the United States. It complains that there were no known criminal prosecutions for counterfeiting in Canada in 2017, calling Canada an outlier among developed countries. It also bemoans what it calls excessive use of education-related exceptions to copyright laws, which it says have damaged the market for educational publishers and authors.

—Procurement: Canada’s aim is to increase companies’ access to public-works contracts abroad, expanding that access from federal contracts to state/provincial and local ones. Currently, subnational procurement rights are negotiated on a case-by-case basis. The U.S. has the opposite goal: It wants to limit the access Canadian and Mexican companies already enjoy at the federal level, restricted to whatever amount of contracts American companies win in the other countries.

—Sunset clause: One of the most controversial ideas of this negotiation. The U.S. has pushed for a clause in the deal that would cancel NAFTA after five years, unless every country agrees to keep it. Critics say this is a recipe for permanent uncertainty. They ask how a car company, for instance, is supposed to invest in all the assembly-line changes demanded in this deal, when the whole deal could be over in five years. They also point out that NAFTA already has a termination clause, which countries can invoke if they’re unhappy.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ridiculed the sunset idea in a public event in New York. He used a real-estate metaphor and made clear he was addressing President Donald Trump: What developer would build a skyscraper on a piece of land, Trudeau asked, if access to that land was only guaranteed for five years?

—Professional visas: Canada wants to modernize the list of professions eligible for a NAFTA work visa under Chapter 16. The current list of jobs eligible for these visas is decades old, and features almost nothing for the tech industry. Companies complain this makes it hard to send their own employees to branches across the border. The U.S. has put up some resistance, as any expansion of work-related migration risks being wrapped into the heated U.S. immigration debate.

 

Huffington Post / Alexander Panetta / May 22