Petróleo en apertura cerca de 50 dólares ante menor presión del Brexit

Menores presiones por el Brexit provocan un avance en los precios internacionales del crudo en la apertura de este lunes.

La semana inicia con optimismo para el mercado petrolero y el precio del crudo estadunidense West Texas Intermediate (WTI) para entregas en julio registra en apertura un alza de 2.19% equivalente a poco más de un dólar que el cierre previo; por lo que cotiza en 49.03 dólares por barril.

Los precios del petróleo registran alzas este lunes luego de menores temores respecto a la salida de Reino Unido de la Unión Europea (Brexit).

En Londres, el barril de petróleo tipo Brent del Mar del Norte para entregas en agosto cotizaba con un avance de 1.62% por lo que se vende en 49.98 dólares por barril al inicio de la sesión de hoy en el mercado electrónico Intercontinental Petroleum Exchange (ICE).

El jueves en Gran Bretaña se lleva a cabo el referéndum del Brexit, las últimas encuestas señalan una mayor preferencia por permanecer en la Unión Europea y con ello una reducción en la aversión al riesgo.

Por su parte, la canasta de la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) se cotizó el viernes en 44.18 dólares, lo que representó un ascenso marginal de 15 centavos de dólar (0.34 por ciento) respecto al cierre del jueves pasado, informó el cártel.

brexit

Fuente: El Economista

Raymond James: Get Ready for $80 Oil

Rebounding after a two-year collapse, it’s only this month that oil prices have pushed up past $50 a barrel, but Raymond James & Associates says this is just the beginning for higher prices.

In a note to clients, analysts led by J. Marshall Adkins say West Texas Intermediate will average $80 per barrel by the end of next year — that’s higher than all but one of the 31 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. 

«Over the past few months, we’ve gained even more confidence that tightening global oil supply/demand dynamics will support a much higher level of oil prices in 2017,» the team says. «We continue to believe that 2017 WTI oil prices will average about $30/barrel higher than current futures strip prices would indicate.»

The team went on to lay out three reasons for their bullish call, all of which are tied to global supply — the primary factor that precipitated crude’s massive decline.

Here’s how the rebalancing of the global oil market will be expedited from the supply side, according to the analysts:

First, the analysts see production outside the U.S. being curbed by more than they had previously anticipated, which constitutes 400,000 fewer barrels of oil per day being produced in 2017 relative to their January estimate. In particular, they cite organic declines in China, Columbia, Angola, and Mexico as prompting this downward revision.

«When oil drilling activity collapses, oil supply goes down too!,» writes Raymond James. «Amazing, huh?»

Adkins and his fellow analysts also note that the unusually large slew of unplanned supply outages will, in some cases, persist throughout 2017, taking a further 300,000 barrels per day out of global supply.

Finally, U.S. shale producers won’t be able to get their DUCs in a row to respond to higher prices by ramping up output, the team reasons, citing bottlenecks that include a limited available pool of labor and equipment.

Combine this supply curtailment with firmer than expected global demand tied to gasoline consumption, and Adkins has a recipe for $80 crude in relatively short order.

«These newer oil supply/demand estimates are meaningfully more bullish than at the beginning of the year,» he writes. «Our previous price forecast was considerably more bullish than current Street consensus, and our new forecast is even more so.»

The only analyst with a higher price forecast for 2017, among those surveyed by Bloomberg, is Incrementum AG Partner Ronald Stoeferle. He sees West Texas Intermediate at $82 per barrel next year. The consensus estimate is for this grade of crude to average $54 per barrel in 2017.

Over the long haul, however, Raymond James’ team sees WTI prices moderating to about $70 per barrel.

Copyright: Rig Zone

CRE aprobará uso de infraestructura de Pemex a privados

En breve, las empresas interesadas en importar gasolina podrán presentar sus ofertas para utilizar la infraestructura con que cuenta Pemex, señaló la Comisión Reguladora de Energía.

La Comisión Reguladora de Energía (CRE) comenzará a analizar en el próximo trimestre las ofertas de las distribuidoras de gasolina que quieren importar combustible, una actividad que anteriormente estaba reservada al Estado, concretamente a Pemex.

Las distribuidoras pronto estarán autorizadas a presentar ofertas para usar la infraestructura de la empresa productiva del Estado, para transportar combustible de los Estados Unidos a México, aseguró Guillermo García Alcocer, presidente de la CRE.

“Esperamos que, para el próximo trimestre, podamos autorizar la temporada abierta”, dijo en entrevista.

Las distribuidoras deben utilizar las tuberías de Pemex para importar gasolina a México debido a que la empresa productiva del Estado actualmente es la única del país con una infraestructura de distribución de combustible, señaló García. 

México abrió su sector petrolero para permitir que este año, por primera vez desde la década de 1930, haya operadores privados de estaciones de servicio y para que privados puedan importar gasolinas, sin el apoyo de Pemex.

“Pemex quiere incluir determinadas condiciones en los contratos que va a ofrecer y tenemos que verificar que no impongan a los consumidores cargos que no estén de acuerdo con las prácticas internacionales”, agregó.

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Después que el regulador estudie las ofertas de utilización de los oleoductos de Pemex y se aprueben los participantes, las distribuidoras ganadoras serán autorizadas a importar gasolina a las estaciones de servicio de todo el país. 

Si bien Pemex es la única compañía que desde hace décadas opera las estaciones de servicio mexicanas, para fin de año habrá cinco nuevas franquicias para operarlas, dijo García.

“La época en que Pemex era la única que podía brindar ese servicio a los consumidores ha llegado a su fin”, expresó.

México otorgó permisos de un año a 96 distribuidoras de diésel y 64 de gasolina para importar un total de 842 millones de barriles de combustible desde el primero de abril, cifra que supera ampliamente los más de 150 millones de barriles de gasolina y los 50 millones de barriles de diésel que importó Pemex el año pasado, de acuerdo con los datos de la Secretaría de Energía (Sener).

La CRE calcula que desde su aprobación en 2014, la reforma energética ha generado planes de inversiones públicas y privadas por valor de 156 mil millones de dólares en proyectos de hidrocarburos, infraestructura de gas natural y generación de energía.

Fuente: El Financiero

Hay 23 empresas interesadas en la licitación de la Ronda 1.4: CNH

Atlantic Rim, BHP Billton, Chevron, China OffShore Oil Corporation, ExxonMobil, Hess México, Inpex, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Murphy Sur y NBL México, entre otras 12 empresas, se mostraron interesadas en la licitación de la Ronda 1.4 de aguas ultraprofundas en el sector petrolero mexicano.

Así lo informó este viernes el presidente de la Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH), Juan Carlos Zepeda Molina, y precisó que las compañías podrán asociarse y formar diversos consorcios: unos con la etiqueta de operadores y otros con la de financieros.

De acuerdo con Zepeda, la CNH ejecutará la licitación y publicará las bases en el marco de la convocatoria de la Ronda 1.4 que se celebrará el próximo 5 de diciembre.

El secretario de Energía Pedro Joaquín Coldwell, quien informó que la licitación de este campo en aguas ultraprofundas se realizará por licitación y cambiará a contrato de licencia, destacó que será la Secretaría de Hacienda la que defina el régimen fiscal a aplicar en dicho contrato.

Las otras empresas que solicitaron entrar al proceso de precalificación hasta el momento son: ONGC Videsh, Ophir Mexico, PC Carigali, PetroCanadá, Petrobras, Pemex, Repsol, Shell, Sierra Oil and Gas, Statoil y Total.

Fuente: Proceso

Mexico Plans Next Bidding Round For Energy Opening By End-July

The next bidding round in the opening of Mexico’s oil and gas sector will be called by the end of July and consist of 15 shallow water blocks for exploration and extraction in the Gulf of Mexico, Energy Minister Pedro Joaquin Coldwell said.

Coldwell announced the round, denominated 2.1, at an event in the northern city of Monterrey on Wednesday.

The following round, or 2.2, would be called by the end of the summer and comprise 14 onshore blocks for exploration and production in the gas-rich Burgos basin in the north of the country as well as in southeast Mexico, Coldwell added.

Mexico ended the oil and gas monopoly of national oil company Pemex at the end of 2013 to open up the industry to more private sector investment. However, the auctions of oil and gas blocks have been complicated by a sharp drop in crude prices.

Crude futures on Wednesday hit their highest levels in 2016, beyond $50 per barrel. Coldwell said it was very hard to forecast whether the recovery in prices would last

Copy right: Rig Zone

Querétaro, una opción para el sector energético

En el territorio hay oportunidad de generar energía solar, geotérmica y eólica, por lo que se busca acaparar las oportunidades de negocio que se presenten en este  sector.

La entidad levanta la mano y asegura que en el territorio hay oportunidad de generar energía en tres vías: solar, geotérmica y eólica, por lo que busca acaparar las oportunidades de negocio que se presenten en el sector energético.

El secretario de Desarrollo Sustentable, Marco Del Prete Tercero, adelantó que se tienen en negociación tres proyectos de generación de energía, uno eólico y dos solares, los cuales estarían aterrizando en el corto plazo.

Expuso que ante el crecimiento del sector industrial en la zona, los requerimientos de electricidad en la región son cada vez mayores. 

“Hay que determinar que el consumo de energía eléctrica en Querétaro es alto debido a la gran cantidad de industria que está llegando.”

Referente a la energía solar, Del Prete destacó que el estado cuenta con zonas altas que se ubican al norte, y en las que la radiación solar es equiparable a la de estados como Sonora y Chihuahua.

Por otro lado, el funcionario estatal recordó que el gasoducto Los Ramones cruza la parte sur de la entidad de frontera a frontera, por lo que en esta parte se advierten opciones para la generación de energía geotérmica a través del gas.

Actualmente el proveedor de energía para las empresas es la Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE). El gobierno confía en que con la reforma energética se podrán ofrecer nuevos servicios de distribución a través de empresas generadoras, como el Grupo Dragón de origen mexicano que ya opera en Jalisco.

Del Prete estableció que “de continuar el ritmo de crecimiento, la CFE requerirá inversiones mayores o deberá aprovechar la cogeneración con otras empresas.”

Fuente: El Financiero

Mexico’s Pemex Approves Trion Field as First Farm Out

Mexican state oil company Pemex has picked the deep-water Trion field near the U.S. border as the first one it will farm out to other operators to help it develop untapped resources, the firm said on Friday.

The search for private capital to boost areas previously discovered by Pemex is a major step in the opening up of Mexico’s oil and gas industry, a process enabled by an energy reform that ended the company’s monopoly in 2013.

Pemex Chief Executive Jose Antonio Gonzalez Anaya told a news conference the company’s board had approved the step and that Trion would likely be operated by a company other than Pemex.

«It’s a big, important field,» Gonzalez said.

The Trion field, located in the Perdido area, will require about $11 billion worth of investment and more farm outs will follow, Gonzalez said. In total, the Trion field contained some 480 million barrels, he added.

Pemex did not have a specific number of investors in mind for the Trion field, he said. The companies involved in the farm out should be announced in December, when Mexico has scheduled its first auctions for deep water fields.

Speaking at the same news conference, Energy Minister Pedro Joaquin Coldwell said the Trion farm out would be in the form of a license and that the field was 2,500 meters (8,202 feet) deep.

Two years of falling crude prices have hurt Pemex, which wants partners to boost output and improve margins.

In the first quarter of this year, Pemex ran up its 14th consecutive quarterly loss at about 62 billion pesos ($3.6 billion), as both crude prices and output fell.

Earlier, Pemex announced that Luis Rafael Montanaro Sanchez had been named as the new director of Pemex’s ethylene unit.

Source: Rig Zone

Peso ‘rebota’ siguiendo al petróleo por arriba de 50 dólares

La moneda mexicana se aleja de un mínimo de 15 semanas apoyada por un mejor entorno internacional y a la espera de una importante presentación de la presidenta de la Fed, Janet Yellen.

Este lunes el dólar spot se intercambia en 18.58 unidades, lo cual representa para el peso un modesto avance de 0.04 por ciento, con base en información de Bloomberg.

En ventanilla bancaria, el billete verde se vende en 18.85 pesos, por debajo de los 18.90 del pasado viernes, reportado por Banamex.

La moneda mexicana se perfila para hilar su segunda jornada en terreno positivo, situación que contribuye a alejarla de un mínimo de quince semanas.

La mayor demanda del peso mexicano se ve impulsada por la recuperación de los precios del petróleo y a la espera de una presentación de la presidenta de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos, Janet Yellen.

El crudo tipo West Texas Intermediate sube 2.22 por ciento a 49.70 dólares por barril, mientras que el Brent aumenta 1.99 a 50.63 dólares.

Precios del petróleo más altos implica una mayor generación de divisas para naciones productoras como México.

La fortaleza de la moneda mexicana, observada al inicio de la semana, también se ve apoyada por un retroceso del dólar en el mercado internacional.

El billete verde pierde 0.05 por ciento con respecto a una canasta de seis divisas.

Los participantes del mercado esperan el discurso de la presidenta de la Fed, Janet Yellen, la última presentación programada para un funcionario del instituto central antes de la reunión de política monetaria programada para el próximo 14 y 15 de junio.

De acuerdo al mercado de futuros, se le da una probabilidad de un 4.0 por ciento a que la Fed aumente su tasa de referencia en su reunión de junio, en tanto que para julio sube a solamente 30.9 por ciento.

Desde el punto de vista del análisis técnico, es importante que el tipo de cambio cierre por debajo de la barrera ubicada en 18.60 unidades, para poder enviar una mejor señal en torno al comportamiento de la moneda mexicana.

Fuente: El Financiero

Oil demand to peak in 2030 as energy experts slash forecasts

Global  oil demand could  peak by the end of the next decade  even as global economic growth climbs.

The latest downward revision to forecasts, from consulting firm McKinsey, could  leave major new investments uneconomic if demand for energy fails to meet expectations.

McKinsey said it has cut its forecast for growth in demand  to 0.8pc a year to 2040, “well below mainstream base case perspectives”, including its own estimate of 1.1pc made last year.

Demand for oil is expected to grow even more slowly  beyond 2025, with the research pointing to a possible  peak of 100m barrels a day by 2030, from current levels of 94m.

The  industry is mired in debt after the plunge in oil prices in recent years.

McKinsey’s Occo Roelofsen said despite an expected increase in global population of around 36pc, and a doubling in global gross domestic product (GDP), shifting energy sector dynamics are set to depress energy demand.

“ This change is driven by three factors: first, overall GDP growth is structurally lower as the population ages; second, the global economy is shifting away from energy-intense industry towards services; and third, energy efficiency continues to improve significantly,” he said. “Peak oil demand could be reached around 2030. ”

 Meanwhile growth in electricity demand will outstrip other sources of energy by more than two to one, due to the steady “electrification” of building and industry in China and India.

Almost 80pc of the capacity needed to meet this  increase will be  from solar and wind power, McKinsey predicts.

Copyright: The Telegraph

What Works for Wind Power Could Also Work Under the Sea

Jim Dehlsen, a 79-year-old wind-energy pioneer who sold one turbine company to Enron and took another public, has spent his life thinking about the best way to make blades turn in the sky. For his latest effort, he’s flipping a turbine upside down and plunging it dozens of meters into the ocean, in waters that are up to 300 meters deep. There, marine currents rotate the 13.5-meter long blades to pull power from the sea.

Aquantis, Dehlsen’s Santa Barbara, Calif., company, will start deploying turbines in 2018 in waters near Wales and the Isle of Wight. Its most ambitious project is a 200-megawatt field of marine turbines in the strong Gulf Stream off the coast of Florida, due to come online in 2019 or 2020. The world’s oceans remain relatively untapped as an energy source, compared with wind and solar. By 2030, Dehlsen says, marine energy could serve 8 percent or 9 percent of U.S. power needs. “The oceans are the major remaining potential for renewable energy,” he says. “Getting on that now is really urgent.”

It took wind at least 15 years to become a viable, cost-effective resource. In the late 1970s, when scientists first started experimenting with wind turbines, “people laughed at you and said, ‘Wind will never work,’ ” says Robert Thresher, a research fellow at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo. In the ’80s and ’90s, the industry settled on the three-blade turbine design considered the standard today. Many aspects of turbine design can be applied to the oceans, adjusted to handle the slower, heftier fluid dynamics of seawater.

Aquantis is developing systems to capture energy from waves, from tidal currents, which switch direction twice a day, and from gyre, or steady, currents. Much of Dehlsen’s obsession these days is with the Gulf Stream. Its constant current can rotate turbines day and night, allowing Aquantis to squeeze more power out of each turbine. That will cut the price per kilowatt-hour. “Because the stream flows all the time, it’s probably the one that can become cost-effective most easily,” Thresher says.

Aquantis, which isn’t the first company to design underwater turbines, wants to lower the cost of marine energy. Dehlsen says deploying an Aquantis device—towing it out to sea, filling it with seawater ballast, then anchoring it—runs about $347,000 per turbine. The rotor’s two blades can withstand huge volumes of water moving as fast as 4 knots. The topmost part floats just above the surface, and the rest of the equipment is held in place with mooring lines to the ocean floor, making it quicker to deploy and cheaper to maintain. Repair crews take an elevator down the shaft. Rival turbine makers dig deep into the ocean floor to anchor the machinery so that it can withstand the strength of the currents; their repairs require raising the structure to the surface. That pushes up the cost significantly, Dehlsen says, to about five to seven times more than Aquantis’s.

Dehlsen plans to install his turbines in a few test sites and sell power to the grid. He sees a second revenue stream in marine turbines housing data centers for the world’s tech giants, using the turbine’s shaft as a storage area for racks of servers. That can save companies money on air conditioning by using cold ocean water to cool the equipment. Aquantis designed and built a pilot test chamber for Microsoft that housed a data center underwater for 105 days off California’s San Luis Obispo pier last year. The test was a success, Microsoft said, with minimal ocean heating and no leaks or hardware failures. Dehlsen is reaching out to Apple, Facebook, and Google about similar efforts.

Dehlsen is courting tech companies and investors while trying to lock down test sites from the north coast of Brazil to Cape Agulhas, on the southern tip of Africa. Little testing has taken place in the U.S. Aquantis has won Department of Energy grants and received some venture capital from Mistubishi Heavy Industries. Dehlsen has self-funded a lot of the work; additional income comes from projects like the data center program. His track record in renewable energy reassures potential partners, says Charles Vinick, Aquantis’s chief executive officer. “Jim is seen as the father of American wind—that opens the door.”

Marine turbines face some challenges, such as concerns over unknown environmental effects. Their blades could strike whales or create noise that confuses sea life. Dehlsen says studies conducted in the U.K. show turbines are safe for fish and marine life. The bigger challenge, he says, is creating marine energy that is cost-competitive. He expects to get to less than 10¢ a kilowatt-hour in three to five years. (Wind energy hovers from 3¢ to 8¢ a kilowatt-hour, solar from 4¢ to 7¢, and conventional gas from 5¢ to 8¢.) “In renewable energy, people get enthusiastic about an idea, and yes, maybe you can make electricity. But if it’s 8¢ a kilowatt-hour, so what?” he says. “Don’t even bother.”

Dehlsen’s best argument may be a slide in his presentation about the urgency of global warming. “The time that’s left in which we can make a change is relatively short,” he says. “Five to 10 years, and you’re beyond being able to stem it.”

Copyright: Bloomberg